NIL, in its current form, began in 2021, and that timeline matters more than it might seem at first. If you look at the natural cycle of college athletics, which typically runs in four-year windows, the first group of athletes who experienced NIL during their college careers are only now starting to cycle out around 2025. That group wasn’t developed with NIL in mind. They were introduced to it while already in the system and had to figure it out in real time, without any real preparation.

What we’re seeing now is the start of a different phase. This incoming class is the first group of athletes who had some level of awareness of NIL before even getting to college. In theory, that should mean they’re better prepared. In reality, it’s still early. The awareness is there, but the preparation behind it hasn’t fully caught up or been built out in a structured way.

The system itself isn’t broken, but it hasn’t evolved to meet the commercial demands that now exist around athletes. It still does a great job of producing high-level performers. What it hasn’t done is develop those same athletes as commercial assets. NIL didn’t create that gap. It just made it visible.

Right now, most of the real preparation is concentrated at the top. The highest-level athletes are the ones getting media exposure, brand attention, and some form of guidance before they even step on campus. But that’s not representative of the majority. Most athletes, even at the Division I level, aren’t being developed with that same level of intention around their commercial presence.

And the reality is, sports don’t work in a perfectly predictable way. Performance isn’t linear. Players emerge out of nowhere, roles change, and opportunities can scale quickly.

You see that with examples like Fernando Mendoza. A player who wasn’t initially prioritized can move through different environments and suddenly find himself in a position of real visibility and impact.

That’s why commercial readiness can’t be something reserved only for top prospects. Any athlete can hit a moment where the spotlight is on them. The difference is whether they’re actually prepared to do something with it.

Closing that gap isn’t on one group alone. Athletes need to take initiative, agents and companies need to recognize the value in building this early, and those with experience need to help guide the process. Right now, that kind of structure mostly exists at the top. But if the nature of sports is unpredictability, then the preparation for it needs to be built at a much broader level.

Performance is the foundation for any athlete. It is what allows them to compete at a high level and enter environments where NIL opportunities can exist in the first place. Without it, there is no real access to visibility or progression within the system.

At the same time, performance on its own is not sufficient to determine an athlete’s overall value.

The environment around sports has changed, particularly with the introduction of NIL. Brands are not only evaluating who the best players are, but also how those players connect with people. That connection can come through their school, their team, or the broader community they are part of. In that sense, value is no longer tied strictly to performance, but also to the ability to hold attention and relate to a specific audience in a way that feels natural.

What this creates is a separation between athletes who generate attention and those who are able to use it effectively.

Most athletes are still developed almost entirely around performance, while the commercial side is not approached with the same level of structure. As a result, many athletes build visibility without a clear understanding of how that visibility is being perceived or how it can be used.

This becomes a limitation over time. An athlete can perform well and still be difficult to align with from a brand perspective if there is no defined identity or consistency in how they present themselves. In those cases, attention exists, but it does not easily translate into something that can be applied in a commercial setting.

So it ultimately comes down to whether that moment of visibility is supported by some level of structure.

Without it, the attention may be there, but it is difficult to convert into something more meaningful.Without that, the attention may be there, but it is difficult to convert into something more meaningful.

For that reason, once an athlete reaches a level of visibility through performance, the focus needs to shift toward understanding how that attention is shaped, how it is perceived, and how it can be developed into something that creates consistent value over time.

Positioning starts before an athlete ever focuses on growing an audience. It requires the athlete, along with whoever is guiding them, to define who they are and how they come across over time. That includes their personality, their values, and the way they want to be perceived, both on and off the field.

Without that clarity, building an audience tends to become inconsistent. Content, messaging, and overall presence can feel disconnected, which makes it harder to develop something that lasts. When positioning is defined early, it gives direction to everything that follows. The athlete is not just putting themselves out there, but doing so in a way that is consistent and recognizable.

From a commercial standpoint, this is what allows alignment with brands. Companies are not only looking for exposure. They are looking for individuals whose identity and audience already reflect the type of market they are trying to reach. When there is a natural connection between the athlete and the brand, partnerships are easier to structure and tend to be more effective over time.

This is why positioning tends to matter before scale. An athlete can grow an audience quickly, but if there is no clear identity behind it, that attention can be difficult to apply in a commercial setting. When positioning is established first, the audience that develops is usually more aligned, which makes it easier to identify opportunities that fit.

At the highest level, this becomes easier to see. Athletes like Lionel Messi and Zlatan Ibrahimović perform at a similar level, but they come across in completely different ways. Messi is often associated with humility and a team-first mentality, which fits naturally with things like his long-standing involvement with UNICEF, a global organization focused on supporting children and communities. It reinforces how people already see him.

Zlatan, on the other hand, has built his image around confidence and individuality. That carries into ventures like his A-Z Sportswear brand, which is centered on self-expression and independence and feels like a direct extension of who he is.

In both cases, the identity is clear, which makes it easier for brands to understand how they fit and why the partnership makes sense.

Without that level of clarity, even athletes with visibility can be difficult to work with from a commercial perspective. There may be attention, but no clear way to connect it to a specific audience or brand.

Once that positioning is established, the next step is to understand how it translates into measurable value.

Positioning is where everything starts, but on its own it does not tell a brand much. At a commercial level, the question is always the same: how does this attention actually turn into value?

A big part of that comes down to engagement. It gives a sense of how consistently an athlete holds attention over time. Not just how many people follow them, but whether those people are actually paying attention and staying connected. When that engagement is tied to a clear identity, it starts to say something more meaningful than just visibility.

From there, the focus shifts to the audience itself. Who is paying attention matters just as much as how many. Over time, you can start to see patterns in what that audience cares about, how they behave, and what they tend to gravitate toward. That begins to shape a clearer idea of what kind of market the athlete is actually connected to, and which types of brands might naturally fit into that.

Once you understand how an audience behaves, you can start to think about how they act as consumers. What they buy, how often they buy, and what influences those decisions starts to matter a lot more. It is not about tracking every action perfectly, but about seeing enough consistency in behavior to form a reasonable view of how that audience might respond to a product or a brand.

That is where attention starts to become useful. It moves from something passive into something that can be interpreted and, to some extent, predicted. And that is what brands are really trying to get comfortable with.

When an athlete or their team can show that their audience already behaves in ways that align with a company’s product or service, the conversation of potential future success becomes somewhat more concrete. It is no longer just about reach. It becomes easier to talk about outcomes, even if those outcomes are still estimates.

The athlete becomes someone who can be evaluated in a more structured way, which is what ultimately allows partnerships to be built with more clarity.

Right now, a significant amount of value is being left on the table. Not because the opportunity isn’t there, but because the ecosystem is still catching up to it. NIL is still early. Awareness has moved quickly, but the systems and processes needed to fully capture that value have not developed at the same pace.

What that creates is a timing gap. The opportunity exists, but the ability to structure it and scale it is still limited.

In that kind of environment, the advantage usually goes to those who adapt faster. The athletes, agents, and organizations that are able to build this into their process early, and do it consistently, are the ones that will capture a disproportionate share of the value.